Overnight, forex pairs often trade in a narrow Asian range. When London opens, price frequently breaks one side of it — say the high — and breakout buyers jump in. If that move fails and price drops back into the range, those buyers are trapped, and their stops add fuel to the fall.
ICT named it after the betrayal: the first move of the session points the wrong way. It is the manipulation phase of the power of three.
| Entry (short) | 1.08500 — close back inside the range |
|---|---|
| Stop | 1.08680 — 2 pips above the Judas high (18 pips) |
| Target | 1.08240 — below the Asian low (26 pips) |
| Reward to risk | 1.44R · breaks even at a 41% win rate |
EURUSD prices from the chart above (Judas swing), entry at 1.08500. At 1.44R, this setup needs to win more than 41% of the time to make money before costs. Try your own levels in the risk/reward calculator.
Some traders look for it only in the London killzone (02:00–05:00 New York), others also at the New York open. Some measure the Asian range from midnight New York instead of 20:00.
The Judas swing is the break that fails. Buying the first break of the Asian high is the trap itself.
Until price closes back inside the range, the move may be a real breakout.
A Judas swing works best when the reversal agrees with the daily direction.
A definition does not tell you whether your Judas swing trades pay. Your own record does: in the journal, open a trade from MT4 or MT5 and add it once as your own entry criterion with “+”, then press the key of Judas swing under Entry criteria — the most used criteria get keys 1–9.
Reports then show Judas swing by itself: trades, win rate without breakeven trades, average R and P&L, and Judas swing in each ICT killzone, which is set on every trade by itself. Combinations such as Judas swing with another criterion appear once they have 15 trades, so a lucky streak does not look like an edge.
Most often in the first hours of the London session, around 02:00–05:00 New York time; some traders also watch the New York open.
It is a specific stop hunt: of the Asian range, at a session open, before the day’s real move.
It is the manipulation phase: accumulation in Asia, the Judas swing at the open, distribution after.