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Risk of ruin calculator
Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade. See the chance that a losing run takes the account down to the level you call ruin — a prop firm’s max loss, for example.
- Read-only
- Never places trades
- No password
Reward-to-risk: 1.5 means wins are one and a half times the losses.
For example, a prop firm’s max loss, or the drawdown at which you would stop.
Runs in your browser: your numbers are not saved or sent.
What moves it most: risk per trade
Win rate 50 %, wins 1.5 times the losses, ruin at −10 % (a common prop max loss), 200 trades, a fixed stake. Only the risk per trade changes:
| Risk per trade | Losses in a row to ruin | Risk of ruin |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 % | 20 | 0.1 % |
| 1 % | 10 | 3.6 % |
| 2 % | 5 | 18.6 % |
| 3 % | 4 | 28.9 % |
- Expectancy (R) = win rate × payoff − (1 − win rate)
- Losses in a row to ruin (fixed stake) = ruin level ÷ risk per trade, rounded up
- Risk of ruin = share of 10,000 simulated sequences that reach the ruin level
How it is calculated
- The calculator plays out 10,000 sequences of trades with your win rate and payoff and counts how many fall to the ruin level within the number of trades you set. The same input always gives the same answer.
- Textbook formulas assume wins equal losses or endless trading. A simulation handles any payoff, a fixed or compounding stake and a set number of trades.
- Check on a case with a known answer: 60 % wins at 1:1, a fixed 10 % stake, ruin at −50 % — five net losses. Gambler’s ruin gives (0.4 ÷ 0.6)^5 ≈ 13.2 %; the calculator gives about 13.7 % over 2,000 trades.
- It assumes every trade is independent. Real losing streaks cluster — after a loss, sizes and decisions change — so treat the result as a floor, not a promise.
How the FTMO daily loss limit is calculated →All free tools →
Questions
›What is risk of ruin in trading?
The probability that a run of losses takes the account down to a level you cannot or will not trade below — zero, or a prop firm’s max loss. It depends on the win rate, the size of wins against losses and how much you risk per trade.
›Fixed amount or % of the current balance?
With a fixed amount every loss takes the same sum; with a % of the current balance losses shrink as the balance falls, so more of them are needed to reach the same level. Many prop firms set the max loss from the starting balance, so the fixed amount is the closer model there.
›Where do the win rate and payoff come from?
From your own trades, not from a strategy’s promise: the MT4/MT5 report gives the share of profit trades and the average profit and loss trade. The win rate calculator turns them into break-even and expectancy.
Use your real win rate and payoff
The journal counts them from your MT4/MT5 trades — per setup, too — so the inputs here are facts, not hopes. Free for one account.
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